COVID-19 may no longer dominate the headlines as it did during the pandemic, but SARS-CoV-2 has not disappeared. In summer 2026, several countries are reporting renewed increases in COVID activity, reminding us that COVID can produce significant waves outside the traditional winter respiratory-virus season.
Recent surveillance shows increasing activity in parts of the United States and Asia, while wastewater surveillance is detecting higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 in some communities. The current situation is not being described as a return to the severe pandemic waves of 2020–2021, but it is important because COVID remains capable of causing serious illness, particularly in vulnerable people.
Is COVID really surging again this summer?
COVID activity in the United States had been relatively low. By August 2026, however, surveillance indicators were showing an increase in viral activity. Recent reports based on CDC epidemic-trend modeling indicate that infections were growing or likely growing across much of the country, with the South and West showing particularly noticeable increases.
Wastewater surveillance has become particularly useful because people are testing themselves far less frequently than during the pandemic. In California’s Bay Area, for example, wastewater concentrations increased substantially during July 2026, although levels remained below some previous summer peaks.
There are also reports of increased COVID activity in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, indicating that the current rise is not limited to the United States.
However, “surge” does not necessarily mean that COVID is causing a massive increase in severe disease. Current evidence does not suggest a return to the overwhelming hospitalization and mortality seen during the early pandemic.
Why can COVID surge during summer?
One of the most important lessons from the last several years is that COVID is not exclusively a winter virus.
SARS-CoV-2 can circulate throughout the year, with waves influenced by several factors. Immunity from previous infection and vaccination decreases over time, while new variants can acquire mutations that allow them to spread more effectively or partially evade existing immunity.
Summer behavior can also contribute. In very hot or humid regions, people may spend more time together in air-conditioned indoor environments, where respiratory viruses can spread more easily. Travel, large gatherings and international movement can further mix populations and introduce viruses into communities with different levels of immunity.
The CDC had already identified the South and West of the United States as areas that could be more vulnerable to a summer increase because of differences in recent population immunity and previous seasonal activity.
Which COVID variants are circulating?
The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to evolve, and several Omicron-descendant lineages are currently being monitored. According to the World Health Organization, NB.1.8.1, XFG and BA.3.2 are among the variants under monitoring in 2026. WHO’s June 2026 global data showed NB.1.8.1 becoming particularly prevalent among submitted sequences, while XFG and BA.3.2 were also circulating.
NB.1.8.1 — “Nimbus”
NB.1.8.1 is an Omicron-related lineage that has attracted considerable attention because of its increasing prevalence. Some people infected with this variant have reported a particularly prominent sore or scratchy throat, although symptoms can vary considerably between individuals. It is important not to diagnose a particular variant based on symptoms alone.
XFG — “Stratus”
XFG is another Omicron-related lineage currently being monitored. Reports from the United States have described symptoms such as scratchy or hoarse throat, cough, congestion, fatigue and feveramong people infected with XFG.
BA.3.2 — “Cicada”
BA.3.2 is another genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineage under WHO monitoring. CDC genomic surveillance has documented its international spread and substantial genetic differences from other recent lineages.
Despite headlines describing BA.3.2 as a “highly mutated” variant, mutations alone do not prove that a variant causes more severe disease. WHO’s current assessment indicates that NB.1.8.1, XFG and BA.3.2 do not appear to pose additional public-health risks compared with other currently circulating variants, based on available evidence.
What are the symptoms of COVID-19 in 2026?
One reason the current summer wave can be easy to miss is that COVID may resemble an ordinary cold or other respiratory infection. Common symptoms include:
- Sore or scratchy throat
- Cough
- Runny or blocked nose
- Fatigue
- Fever or chills
- Headache
- Muscle or body aches
- Shortness of breath
- Loss or change of taste or smell
- Nausea or vomiting
- Diarrhea
Not everyone develops fever, and symptoms can vary depending on the individual and the variant involved. Some infections are mild or even asymptomatic. The classic loss of smell and taste that became strongly associated with early COVID infections can still occur, but it is less consistently reported than it was with some earlier variants.
Most importantly, symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish COVID from influenza or other respiratory viruses. Testing may be necessary when knowing the diagnosis would affect treatment or precautions.
Who is most at risk of severe COVID-19?
Although the average risk of severe disease is much lower than during the early pandemic, COVID can still be dangerous for certain groups. People at greater risk include:
- Older adults, particularly those in the oldest age groups, people with weakened immune systems, and people with certain chronic medical conditions such as heart or lung disease.
- Pregnancy and some other medical conditions can also increase the risk associated with respiratory viral infections.
For these groups, a seemingly mild infection should not necessarily be dismissed as ‘just a cold.’
What should you do if you develop symptoms?
If you develop new cold- or flu-like symptoms during a period of increased COVID activity, consider COVID testing, particularly if you are at increased risk of severe disease or will be around vulnerable people.
A negative rapid antigen test does not always rule out infection, particularly when testing occurs early. CDC guidance notes that people with symptoms may need repeat testing or more sensitive molecular testing depending on the circumstances.
If you are sick, staying away from others while symptomatic can help reduce transmission. Improving indoor ventilation, avoiding crowded environments when ill and using a well-fitting mask in higher-risk situations can provide additional protection.
What about COVID treatment?
For most otherwise healthy people with mild COVID-19, treatment is supportive and recovery can occur at home. However, high-risk patients should not wait until they become seriously ill before seeking medical advice.
Antiviral medications can reduce the risk of progression to severe disease in eligible high-risk patients. CDC guidance recommends starting treatment as soon as possible, generally within 5–7 days after symptoms begin, depending on the medication.
This is particularly important for older adults and people with significant underlying conditions or weakened immune systems.
When is COVID an emergency?
Most COVID infections do not require emergency treatment, but certain symptoms require urgent medical attention. Seek emergency care for signs such as:
- Difficulty breathing
- Persistent chest pain or pressure
- New confusion
- Inability to wake or remain awake
- Pale, gray or blue discoloration of the skin, lips or nail beds, depending on skin tone
These are potential signs of severe illness.
Does vaccination still matter?
Yes. COVID vaccines continue to be an important tool for reducing the risk of severe disease, hospitalization and death, particularly among people at higher risk.
Current vaccination recommendations vary according to age, health status and previous vaccination history. CDC’s 2025–2026 guidance emphasizes individualized decision-making for many age groups, with particularly strong consideration for people at increased risk of severe COVID.
Because vaccine recommendations can change between countries and over time, people should follow the recommendations of their local health authorities and healthcare professionals.
Is this another pandemic?
No evidence currently suggests that the summer 2026 increase represents a return to the early-pandemic situation.
SARS-CoV-2 has become an established respiratory virus that continues to evolve and cause periodic waves. The important change is that COVID now coexists with influenza, RSV and other respiratory viruses rather than being an entirely new disease.
The current summer increase is therefore better understood as another period of increased SARS-CoV-2 circulation, rather than assuming that a new pandemic is beginning.
Key Takeaway
COVID is still circulating—and summer 2026 is providing another reminder that COVID does not follow a strictly winter-only pattern.
Current increases have been reported in parts of the United States, particularly the South and West, as well as parts of Asia. Several Omicron-descendant variants, including NB.1.8.1, XFG and BA.3.2, are being monitored globally.
For most healthy people, illness remains manageable. But older adults, immunocompromised individuals and people with certain chronic conditions remain at higher risk of complications.
So if you suddenly develop a sore throat, cough, congestion, fatigue, fever or body aches this summer, don’t automatically assume it’s simply a common cold. COVID is still one of the possibilities—and testing can be particularly important when early treatment may be beneficial.
Sources
- WHO — SARS-CoV-2 Variant Tracking. https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/
- WHO — COVID-19 Dashboard. https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19
- WHO — Weekly Epidemiological Record. https://www.who.int/publications/journals/weekly-epidemiological-record
- CDC — COVID-19 Symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/signs-symptoms/
- CDC — COVID-19 Testing. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/testing/
- CDC — COVID-19 Treatment. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/treatment/
- CDC — COVID-19 Risk Factors. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/risk-factors/
- KQED — Summer 2026 COVID-19 Update. https://www.kqed.org/news/12091325/summer-covid-test-2026-wastewater-variants-isolation-contagious-xfg-san-francisco-bay-area-california
- CDC MMWR — BA.3.2 Surveillance. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/pdfs/mm7510-H.pdf
